Today we have 5 conference tournament championship games and some of these matchups are pretty wild when looking at the seeding. Bonus points are guaranteed to be handed out based on the matchups and our pool selections. In addition to conference championship games today, we also will see major conferences tip off. The ACC first round starts this afternoon with one of the biggest surprises of the year, Duke playing as a 10 seed. We could potentially see Duke eliminated from the NCAA tournament 5 days before Selection Sunday. While not a power 5 conference, Conference USA also tips off today with only 1 game, (7W) Southern Mississippi vs. (6W) Rice. The other Conference USA game (7E) FIU vs. (6E) Middle Tennessee State was cancelled due to FIU failing COVID protocols. Middle Tennessee advances. For those keeping track this is now our 3rd conference tournament game cancelled due to COVID.
Northeast
17 out of 30 are still alive in this conference with all 17 on (2) Bryant. Bryant is a slight favorite at 6.5 points, which is good news for the 13 people that will be rooting for (4) Mount Saint Mary's to pull off a small upset. Before the Northeast Conference even tipped off, 50% of our pool picked (2) Bryant and Team Rankings gave Bryant a 48% chance to win the conference tournament.
Horizon League
Shockingly, only 3 out of 30 are still alive in this conference with 2 on (1) Cleveland State and Mattyboi all alone on (3) Oakland. I'm going to copy and paste this statement from a few night ago, but it's amazing at how much we overthink some of our picks that we have a scenario where only 2 people are on the number 1 seed in a low major conference. Cleveland State is a very small favorite tonight at 2.5 points, this game is basically a pick. With a Oakland win tonight Mattyboi, and only Mattyboi, will get bonus points and gets right back in the mix of this pool. Before the Horizon League even tipped off, 65% of our pool picked (2) Wright State and Team Rankings gave Wright State a 72% chance to win the conference tournament. That was so very wrong. A 1 seed has not won the Horizon League conference championship the past 5 years.
Colonial
5 out of 30 are still alive in this conference with all 5 on (6) Drexel. Drexel is a slight favorite at 3.5 points, which is good news for the 25 people that will be rooting for (8) Elon to pull off a small upset. This is what is great with the conference tournaments, we get an 8 vs. 6 and a little guy has a chance to go to the big dance. I know many people don't like this, but I do! Before the Colonial even tipped off, 32% of our pool picked (1) James Madison and Team Rankings gave James Madison a 27% chance to win. This conference was wise open, I figured it would be difficult to pick a winner here. In the past 5 years the Colonial conference tournament champion has been a 1 or a 2 seed.
Summit League
Another conference without its 1 and 2 seeds. 7 out of 30 are still alive in this conference with 5 on (3) North Dakota State and 2 on (4) Oral Roberts. North Dakota State is a very small favorite at 1 point and regardless of the outcome bonus points are going to be awarded. If Mattyboi wins both the Horizon and Summit Leagues tonight he may jump to first place by himself. Before the Summit League even tipped off, 53% of our pool picked (1) South Dakota State and Team Rankings gave South Dakota State a 44% chance to win. This makes it surprising that they are not even in the championship game. North Dakota State win in 2020 as 1 seed and 2019 as a 4 seed.
West Coast
Our final conference should be the one where we know the result already. 29 out of 30 are still alive in this conference with 27 on (1) Gonzaga and 2 on (2) BYU. Gonzaga is a heavy favorite at 14 points and I'm shocked we didn't go 30 for 30 on Gonzaga. Before the West Coast conference even tipped off, 79% of our pool picked (1) Gonzaga and Team Rankings gave Gonzaga a 85% chance to win. These are the largest numbers from any conference this year. Gonzaga has been the conference tournament champion 4 out of the last 5 years.
Clickable links below to the blog and current standings:
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